Writer: Nuttawut Kulkaew

Editor: Wittaya Wonglor

Our world is reaching a point of no return. Researchers at FutureTales Lab by MQDC collected signals of change and projected this scenario for 2023-25:

1. The climate collapse is about to get even worse

Climate change has brought unprecedented natural disasters such as heat waves, both regionally and globally. Melting polar ice will have catastrophic environmental and economic impacts on three continents: Asia, North America, and Europe. Water-related natural disasters will include rising sea levels. More than 40% of the world's population lives in deprived areas and has no access to fresh water for consumption, agriculture, and industry. Up to 90% of the population is experiencing water-related natural disasters. The La Niña phenomenon is forecast to continue intensifying through at least early 2023, and water scarcity is estimated to be widespread, leading to national and international disputes in many areas

2. The pandemic left scars, yet new ones are on their way

The spread of infectious diseases underscores the importance of domestic health systems worldwide. While the severity and duration of COVID-19 infections have decreased dramatically, the impact of the pandemic continues both socially and economically. While the rich may recover within a year, the poor will need 10 years to restore their assets, making 2020-24 a time of battle against epidemics and viral mutations. From 2023, social movements and demands for open access to vaccines are forecast. An era of accelerating economic recovery and growth will come in 2025-30 in Thailand and worldwide. But COVID-19 and emerging diseases will a main reason why many developing countries revert to being underdeveloped during the recession in 2023-25.

For the next pandemic, based on events in the past 100 years, severe epidemics occur 4 times every 15-30 years and have an annual probability of an epidemic between 2.5% - 7%. A massive outbreak that will be as deadly as COVID-19 might happen in the next 24 years.

3. Multilateralism in the mist

Countries worldwide, including Thailand, have announced policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in trade and transport, which will impact the economy of other industries. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set out a greenhouse gas emissions strategy for international shipping that aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per international shipping cycle by at least 40% by 2030 and by 50% by 2050 compared to 2008 CO2 emissions. The affected sectors must carefully re-evaluate the quality of their supply chains. Finding solutions that can reduce or mitigate the impact of supply chain disruption may be necessary.

Labeling to report the carbon footprint to show the amount of greenhouse gases emitted and absorbed from the production of goods and services and advocating for a tax on carbon emissions will accelerate in 2023-24. According to a survey, 57% of consumers are ready to change their consumption behavior to help the global environment. 66% are willing to pay more for products and services from eco-conscious brands. In 2022, 69% are willing to do whatever it takes to limit their carbon footprint, up from 63% in 2021.

In addition, businesses may need to adjust their brands in line with the policies of various funding sources. Most financial institutions are moving towards sustainable finance, supporting or allowing lending to eco-friendly businesses such as using green technology or clean energy rather than those still using coal and fossil fuels and industrial processes that emit carbon emissions.

Implications for the future:

- Real estate and construction will be the first to review their business operations in adapting to be eco-friendly and reduce the negative impact on the ecosystem as much as possible.

- Innovation for sustainability or “sustainnovation” will become the mainstream to design standards for buildings and construction raw materials to help all living beings thrive as urbanization grows.

- The market for environmental technology and innovation, especially B2B, will overgrow in line with the needs of organizations that want to transform into sustainable businesses and achieve net zero carbon emission within organizations.

- The policy to adjust the organization for the ecosystem or "Green in All" will adjust the direction and value of the organization in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Bio-Circular-Green Economy (BCG).

- Environmental assets such as funds and clean energy technology stocks will proliferate because investors have confidence and expect long-term returns.

- The movement of environmental activists and academics will intensify around the world. If the government or relevant organizations are still ignoring or unable to make substantial changes, it will result in political tensions among the citizens.

Reference:

อ้างอิงจาก

- How consumers are embracing sustainability https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/consumer-business/articles/sustainable-consumer.html

- The rise of the eco-friendly consumer https://www.strategy-business.com/article/The-rise-of-the-eco-friendly-consumer

- Meet  the 2020 consumers driving change: Why brands must deliver on omnipresence, agility, and sustainability https://www.ibm.com/downloads/cas/EXK4XKX8

- The global eco-wakening: how consumers are driving sustainability https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/05/eco-wakening-consumers-driving-sustainability/

- 38 Stats That Show Environmental Consciousness Is On The Rise [New Data 2022] https://www.renolon.com/environmentally-conscious-consumers-statistics/

- Initial IMO GHG Strategy https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Reducing-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-ships.aspx

- Carbon Taxes https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/us/pdf/2022/02/tnf-south-africa-feb25-2022.pdf

- Revision for phase 4 (2021-2030) https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/eu-emissions-trading-system-eu-ets/revision-phase-4-2021-2030_en

- Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/green-taxation-0/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en

- Water Scarcity Clock https://worldwater.io/

- United Nations 2023 Water Conference - Global Online Stakeholder Consultation: Themes for the Interactive Dialogues https://sdgs.un.org/basic-page/united-nations-2023-water-conference-global-online-stakeholder-consultation-themes

- Water scarcity: Commission advises on safe water reuse in agriculture https://environment.ec.europa.eu/news/water-scarcity-commission-advises-safe-water-reuse-agriculture-2022-08-03_en

- Avoiding a worldwide water crisis: the race to reach SDG6 https://impact.economist.com/sustainability/ecosystems-resources/avoiding-a-worldwide-water-crisis-the-race-to-reach-sdg6

- Tackling climate change https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/sustainability/environmental-sustainability/climate-change_en#newcap

- The new common agricultural policy: 2023-27 https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/common-agricultural-policy/cap-overview/new-cap-2023-27_en

- Emissions will hit record high by 2023 if green recovery fails, says IEA https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/emissions-will-hit-record-high-by-2023-if-green-recovery-fails-says-iea/

- Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely — what does the future hold? https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01668-1

- This Year’s Extreme Weather Is Just Getting Started https://www.wired.co.uk/article/extreme-weather-2022-just-getting-started

- Record-breaking heat wave in Europe will be the norm by 2035, analysis shows https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/25/europe/record-heat-climate-analysis-summer-2035-intl-scli/index.html

- The next pandemic – when could it be? https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/02/next-pandemic-when-could-it-be

- Q&A: Future pandemics are inevitable, but we can reduce the risk https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/qa-future-pandemics-are-inevitable-we-can-reduce-risk

- Pandemics are part of our future. Prepare for them! https://reliefweb.int/report/world/pandemics-are-part-our-future-prepare-them

- Threat, challenges, and preparedness for future pandemics: A descriptive review of phylogenetic analysis based predictions https://doi.org/10.1016/j.meegid.2022.105217

- Data-driven methods for present and future pandemics: Monitoring, modelling and managing https://doi.org/10.1016/j.arcontrol.2021.05.003

- A Call to Stop the Next Pandemic https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/a-call-to-stop-the-next-pandemic

- Oxford University Takes Aim at Future Pandemic Threats https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-04/oxford-university-takes-aim-at-future-pandemic-threats

- Fighting Pandemics  and Building a Healthier and More Equitable World Global Fund Strategy  (2023-2028) https://www.theglobalfund.org/media/11612/strategy_globalfund2023-2028_narrative_en.pdf

- The Potential Role of Carbon Pricing in Thailand's Power Sector https://www.iea.org/reports/the-potential-role-of-carbon-pricing-in-thailands-power-sector

- Race to Net Zero: Carbon Neutral Goals by Country https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/race-to-net-zero-carbon-neutral-goals-by-country/

- Future pandemics will be deadlier if we don't change our behavior, leading scientists say https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-28-20-intl/h_61c2b7cb27f1154b533d41bab08dfb48

- Can you really negate your carbon emissions? Carbon offsets, explained. https://www.vox.com/2020/2/27/20994118/carbon-offset-climate-change-net-zero-neutral-emissions

- NASA's Eyes on Extreme Weather https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/news/2019/10/18/nasas-eyes-on-extreme-weather/

- CostBenefit to GDP of Managing CO2 trough Taxation: A Quantitative Analysis of CO2 Emission, GDP, and Energy Price  https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Segmentation/Student/setthatat/Doclib_settathat_53/pai_preeyanuch_text.pdf

- The Distributional Impact of a Carbon Tax in Asia and the Pacific https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2022/06/09/The-Distributional-Impact-of-a-Carbon-Tax-in-Asia-and-the-Pacific-519111

- Thawing permafrost could release vast carbon deposits, diseases https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/thawing-permafrost-could-release-vast-carbon-deposits-diseases

-Climate change is making infectious diseases worse, according to a ‘truly scary’ study https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/08/climate-change-making-infectious-diseases-worse/

- 2022-2024 THAILAND INDUSTRY OUTLOOK https://www.krungsri.com/en/research/industry/summary-outlook/outlook-2022-2024

- Could ancient viruses from melting permafrost cause the next pandemic? https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25333743-200-could-ancient-viruses-from-melting-permafrost-cause-the-next-pandemic/

- Climate change hazards worsen 58 percent of infectious diseases, study says https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/climate-change-hazards-worsen-58-of-infectious-diseases-study-says

- Floods, heat and other climate hazards are turning 218 infectious diseases into bigger threats, study says https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/climate-hazards-are-turning-218-diseases-bigger-threats-rcna41631

- As Permafrost Melts It's Unleashing Ancient Viruses, Carbon – And Now Fuel Spills https://www.sciencealert.com/as-permafrost-melts-ancient-viruses-and-now-fuel-spills-are-being-unleashed

- The next pandemic – when could it be? https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/02/next-pandemic-when-could-it-be

- PERMAFROST THAWING AND THE RISK OF EMERGING INFECTIONS http://www.cwhc-rcsf.ca/docs/fact_sheets/Permafrost%20thawing%20and%20the%20risk%20of%20emerging%20infections.pdf

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